:Product: 1230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 30/1253Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/0229Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 405 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 083
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 083/083/083
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  009/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10