:Product: 0216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 16/2029Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 16/1552Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
16/1404Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 071
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10