:Product: 0225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Feb,
27 Feb, 28 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 25/0357Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 24/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/2112Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 971 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 080
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10