:Product: 0428RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Apr,
30 Apr, 01 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 490 km/s at 27/2245Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1063 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (30 Apr, 01 May).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Apr 078
Predicted   29 Apr-01 May 078/078/075
90 Day Mean        28 Apr 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May  005/005-008/008-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/30/40