:Product: 0823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 23 2235 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2021 RTD

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a B2 event observed at
23/0113Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Aug,
25 Aug, 26 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 304 km/s at 22/2221Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Aug), and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (25 Aug and 26 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 078
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        22 Aug 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  008/008-008/015-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/35/30