:Product: 1001RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2021

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 569 km/s at 01/1838Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 01/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
01/0711Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (03 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (04 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 091
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct 090/090/085
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  008/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/25/20