:Product: 0107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/2246Z from Region 2924 (S31E20). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 352 km/s at 06/2101Z. Total IMF reached 24 nT at
07/0734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
07/0734Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 821 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Jan), quiet to active levels on day
two (09 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (10 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 107
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 110/112/112
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  006/005-011/012-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/30
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/40