:Product: 0111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/0838Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jan,
13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 422 km/s at 11/0133Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/2011Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/1438Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 123 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 100
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 102/102/104
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 094

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20