:Product: 0130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/2332Z from Region 2936 (N17E05). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 560 km/s at 30/0159Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 30/1458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/2053Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 859 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (01 Feb) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (02
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 130
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 132/132/135
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 097

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  006/005-010/015-028/045

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/25
Minor Storm           01/30/40
Major-severe storm    01/15/30
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/70/85