:Product: 0201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
01/1311Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 524 km/s at 01/2057Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
01/0102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
01/1112Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2203 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (04
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 129
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  027/045-012/015-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/10
Minor Storm           40/10/01
Major-severe storm    30/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/20
Major-severe storm    85/40/15