:Product: 0207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
07/1239Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Feb,
09 Feb, 10 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 06/2258Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6345 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (09 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (10
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 127
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 125/122/120
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 101

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  006/005-010/014-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/45/40
Minor Storm           01/25/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    15/60/70