:Product: 0213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
13/0147Z from Region 2941 (N24W54). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb,
16 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 13/0129Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 13/0523Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
13/0017Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5219 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 105
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb 103/100/098
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  009/010-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/15/15