:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/0518Z from Region 2943 (S20W37). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Feb,
17 Feb, 18 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 444 km/s at 15/0456Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
15/1156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
15/1312Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7941 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    20/20/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 114
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 110/110/108
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15