:Product: 0217RSGA.txt :Issued: 2022 Feb 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 17/0602Z from Region 2941 (N25W97). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (18 Feb, 19 Feb) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (20 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 402 km/s at 17/1359Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1783 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Feb, 19 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (20 Feb). III. Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb Class M 05/05/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Feb 097 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 095/095/098 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 104 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 006/005-006/005-011/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/40 Minor Storm 05/05/30 Major-severe storm 01/01/10 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 15/15/65