:Product: 0218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (19 Feb) and likely to be
low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (20
Feb, 21 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 356 km/s at 17/2203Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
18/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/1726Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4650 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Feb), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (20 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three
(21 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 093
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb 093/096/102
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  009/010-011/018-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/40
Minor Storm           10/30/25
Major-severe storm    01/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/65/60