:Product: 0219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/1942Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Feb,
21 Feb, 22 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 19/2026Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 19/1526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
19/1426Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 201 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 096
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 098/102/102
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  011/018-014/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/60/50