:Product: 0221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Feb,
23 Feb, 24 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 568 km/s at 21/1154Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 20/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/1314Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 232 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 098
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb 102/102/105
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/15