:Product: 0226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
25/2140Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 435 km/s at 25/2117Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1219 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Feb 097
Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar 097/098/102
90 Day Mean        26 Feb 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  008/010-010/012-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/40/40