:Product: 0227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/0626Z from Region 2957 (S13E57). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb,
01 Mar, 02 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 27/2031Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 27/0630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
27/0638Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 811 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (28 Feb, 01 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 097
Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar 099/102/105
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  011/015-012/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/25