:Product: 0308RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/0313Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 08/0025Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4769 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Mar) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 115
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar 116/116/114
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  005/005-009/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/40/40