:Product: 0312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/2232Z from Region 2964 (S28W68). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar,
15 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 12/1407Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 11/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 11/2134Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Mar), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (14 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (15 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 125
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 125/120/120
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  015/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  008/010-020/030-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor Storm           05/35/30
Major-severe storm    01/25/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           25/15/20
Major-severe storm    30/80/65