:Product: 0314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/0840Z from Region 2965 (N24W03). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar,
17 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 13/2251Z. Total IMF
reached 24 nT at 14/0643Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-23 nT at 13/2214Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 186 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 115
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 116/114/116
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  030/045
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  011/014-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/25
Minor Storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/30/30