:Product: 0316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/2246Z from Region 2965 (N24W17). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Mar,
18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 16/0342Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Mar, 18 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 107
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 108/108/106
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  006/008-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor Storm           05/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    35/40/20