:Product: 0317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/0154Z from Region 2965 (N24W44). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 388 km/s at 16/2300Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/0912Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/0437Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 281 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar)
and unsettled to active levels on day three (20 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 103
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  010/010-009/010-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor Storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/35/50