:Product: 0325RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
25/0526Z from Region 2974 (S19E23). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar,
27 Mar, 28 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 25/0000Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/1127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1705Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 194 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (26 Mar, 28 Mar)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (27 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Mar 112
Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar 112/112/110
90 Day Mean        25 Mar 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  010/012-013/018-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/25
Minor Storm           10/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/65/35