:Product: 0326RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/1538Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Mar,
28 Mar, 29 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 430 km/s at 25/2224Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 26/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
26/1857Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 253 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (28 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (29
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Mar 119
Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar 119/115/115
90 Day Mean        26 Mar 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  014/018-010/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/15
Minor Storm           25/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    65/35/20