:Product: 0402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
02/1744Z from Region 2975 (N15W78). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (03 Apr) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (04 Apr, 05
Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 02/0342Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 02/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 02/0102Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 32 pfu at 02/1600Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1178 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr). Protons greater
than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (03 Apr) and have
a chance of crossing threshold on day two (04 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    70/35/25
Class X    25/05/01
Proton     90/25/05
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 143
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr 130/120/115
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  011/015-007/010-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/30/20
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           35/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/40/30