:Product: 0407RSGA.txt :Issued: 2022 Apr 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/0131Z from Region 2985 (S20E16). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Apr) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 07/0510Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/0319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3207 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (08 Apr, 09 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Apr). III. Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr Class M 05/05/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Apr 111 Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 108/108/105 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 113 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 014/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 009/012-010/015-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/25 Minor Storm 15/20/05 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 40/55/30