:Product: 0409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
09/1124Z from Region 2978 (S17W95). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 09/0046Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 09/1530Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
09/1425Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 334 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Apr), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (11 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (12 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 107
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 105/102/100
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  010/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/20