:Product: 0410RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/0241Z from Region 2978 (S17W0*). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 10/1350Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 10/0248Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 10/0317Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 623 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Apr) and quiet levels on
days two and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Apr 101
Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 098/095/095
90 Day Mean        10 Apr 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  017/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr  024/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  011/012-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/20