:Product: 0411RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/0521Z from Region 2987 (S31W06). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (12 Apr) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 11/0412Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 11/0252Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/0549Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 995 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Apr, 13 Apr) and unsettled
to major storm levels on day three (14 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 099
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr 098/095/095
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  018/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  005/005-006/005-023/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           01/01/40
Major-severe storm    01/01/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/79