:Product: 0418RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
17/2234Z from Region 2992 (S31W76). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20
Apr, 21 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 18/0234Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 17/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
18/0926Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1646 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Apr,
20 Apr, 21 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Apr 135
Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        18 Apr 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  009/010-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/30/30