:Product: 0419RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
19/2049Z from Region 2993 (N28, Lo=245). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Apr, 21
Apr, 22 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 18/2321Z.  Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2218 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Apr 135
Predicted   20 Apr-22 Apr 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        19 Apr 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/20