:Product: 0420RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
20/0357Z from a Region beyond the SW limb. There are currently 4
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Apr, 22
Apr, 23 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 19/2306Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/1725Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/2046Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2029 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Apr, 22 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on day three (23 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Apr 160
Predicted   21 Apr-23 Apr 160/160/160
90 Day Mean        20 Apr 115

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  006/005-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/40