:Product: 0424RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Apr 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
24/0412Z from Region 2993 (N19W32). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 24/0121Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 24/2038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/2123Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 358 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Apr 159
Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr 160/160/160
90 Day Mean        24 Apr 118

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  009/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20