:Product: 0503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
03/1325Z from Region 3004 (S15W02). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05
May, 06 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 625 km/s at 02/2242Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
02/2249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/1933Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2317 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06
May).

III.  Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 114
Predicted   04 May-06 May 115/120/125
90 Day Mean        03 May 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10