:Product: 0515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
15/0008Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 15/0815Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 14/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
15/0026Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 140 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (16 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (17 May) and quiet levels on day three (18
May).

III.  Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 154
Predicted   16 May-18 May 154/152/152
90 Day Mean        15 May 120

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  013/014-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    45/25/20