:Product: 0518RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
18/1549Z from Region 3014 (N21E17). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 17/2207Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 18/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/2350Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 May, 20 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 May).

III.  Event probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M    35/30/30
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 May 180
Predicted   19 May-21 May 180/180/178
90 Day Mean        18 May 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  015/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  010/014-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/30