:Product: 0605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1225Z from Region 3029 (S17E48). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Jun,
07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 300 km/s at 05/0117Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
05/1854Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/1704Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5732 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jun) and quiet levels on
days two and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 099
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    40/10/10