:Product: 0614RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
14/1420Z from Region 3031 (S27W04). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 526 km/s at 14/0835Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
14/0617Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/0519Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 274 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jun), unsettled to
active levels on day two (16 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (17 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    45/40/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 146
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun 146/146/144
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  027/040-014/018-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           30/20/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    65/50/30