:Product: 0618RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
18/0020Z from Region 3035 (S18E01). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun,
21 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 645 km/s at 17/2343Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 18/0643Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/2041Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1413 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 140
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun 141/137/134
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/10