:Product: 0620RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
20/0618Z from Region 3038 (N15W07). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (21 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 20/1624Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 20/0735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/1226Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2970 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jun, 22 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on day three (23 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (21 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    30/25/25
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 137
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 135/125/121
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  006/005-006/005-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/40
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/55