:Product: 0621RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/0252Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (22 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 689 km/s at 21/0725Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/1801Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/0856Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2257 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Jun), quiet to active levels on day
two (23 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day three (24 Jun).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (22 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M    30/25/25
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jun 139
Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun 130/125/120
90 Day Mean        21 Jun 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  006/005-008/012-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/40/40
Minor Storm           01/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/55/60