:Product: 0707RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/0129Z from Region 3055 (S18E60). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jul,
09 Jul, 10 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 07/1342Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 07/1328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 07/1342Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 188 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Jul) and quiet
levels on days two and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 121
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul 128/130/130
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  014/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  012/015-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/10/10
Minor Storm           30/01/01
Major-severe storm    15/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    70/15/15