:Product: 0710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
09/2245Z from Region 3052 (N15W01). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 10/0835Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 10/1100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/1114Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 09/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (12 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (13 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 153
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul 160/155/145
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  008/008-013/015-020/028

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor Storm           10/20/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/60/70