:Product: 0726RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
26/1535Z from Region 3060 (N12W89). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jul,
28 Jul, 29 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 26/1810Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 26/1051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/2001Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1229 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (27 Jul, 29
Jul) and quiet levels on day two (28 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 099
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul 098/098/096
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  007/008-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/25