:Product: 0728RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 28/0357Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 28/0602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
27/2147Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1004 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (29 Jul, 31
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (30 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jul 093
Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul 092/092/092
90 Day Mean        28 Jul 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  007/008-009/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/25
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/50/30