:Product: 0811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/0658Z from Region 3077 (S17W37). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug,
13 Aug, 14 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 11/0504Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 11/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
11/1725Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 14595 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 115
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug 115/115/115
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  011/012-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/10/05
Minor Storm           15/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    55/20/05