:Product: 0815RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
15/1654Z from Region 3078 (S24W05). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 510 km/s at 15/0127Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1337Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7575 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (17 Aug) and active to major storm levels on day three (18
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 131
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug 130/130/125
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  006/005-016/022-025/038

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/35/30
Minor Storm           01/30/40
Major-severe storm    01/10/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/70/85