:Product: 0820RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2022 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2022

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/2240Z from Region 3081 (N16W38). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Aug,
22 Aug, 23 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 662 km/s at 19/2114Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 19/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/2022Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1742 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (21 Aug, 22
Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Aug 102
Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug 100/098/098
90 Day Mean        20 Aug 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  018/025-019/025-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    65/60/50